Apocalypse when?

Many people agree that no empire is forever. After all, in a few billion years the sun will eat the earth. Sometime before then, the United States will end. But how?

The effect of world resource depletion on the United States could be compared to a decaying automobile. Without repair, such a thing WILL stop working and usually does suddenly. The term "stops working" could be due to rust finally allowing the uni-body construction to crack in half such as Dimitri Orlov suggests in one of his essays It could also stop working due to lack of a critical part the system needs. That is, the principle of "peak everything", described by Richard Heinburg which covers the lack of availability of parts from ignition computers to gasoline. Using common sense, we know collapse of the United States is inevitable but cannot be precisely predicted.

Here's why. If someone were to look at say the death of a suburban shopping mall this fault is easier to see. When does an old shopping mall collapse? Is it when the mall's owners conclude occupancy is at a level that no longer covers operating costs? Is it when the mall finally closes it's last store? Is it the date when some square footage of roof section falls due to snow load? How about when the remains are finally leveled by a bulldozer to build a new golf course? Depending on how collapse is defined, a "collapse" doesn't happen at a specific time at all! Rather, it's a process consisting of events that can be spread over decades.

So, one might ask,"Will the U.S. achieve somebody's definition of collapse soon?" Absolutely. It's already happened. Just ask somebody who's unemployment has run out. Yet using different metrics, others may say the U.S. is OK or can at least muddle around for another hundred years even if the peak-oil and climate change doomers are correct. Maybe their definition is like mine. As long as the IRS is around, the U.S. still exists.

In my opinion, defining collapse metrics makes the analysis good only for identifying stages. Once the stages are identified, history can then be compared for similar scenarios. However, even if a relatively good historical match can be found little more can be done than setting general strategic direction. Still, analyzing collapse stages might be helpful when deciding on places to live, occupations to pursue and what capital should be built up first (both human and material).

As an example, one action I did in response to Peak Oil and Climate Change was to imagine stages of resource depletion using Dimitri's stages of collapse model. Then I biased that analysis on what I knew of my region's geography and it's history. So, I decided one effective tactic would be to buy a small house with a fixed rate mortgage in a walkable community with enough land for a decent size kitchen garden.  So far, so good.  Even though I'm currently unemployed and prices for all kinds of things are going up, I'm in no immediate danger of starving or being thrown out of my house. 

Why you know what's going on across the world but not across town.

I often wonder why it's harder to find news from across town rather than what's going on half way around the world. Most news seems to concern people and places that most of us don't particularly care about. It's as if the media exists more to distract than to inform.

When it comes to finding the truth in media, it's sometimes like, in the words of Will Farrel, "taking crazy pill shit." The duplication of messages is creepy. As an example, the Conan Obrien show demonstrated how seemingly different media centers reported exactly the the same story in the same way.

So, how is it possible to sort the real news from manufactured falsehoods? How can we tell the difference between some lazy reporters just grabbing an AP news feed on a slow news day versus active manipulation of the media? Well, there is no way of knowing.

Even if we can't tell truth from fiction, we can still put out a hypothesis then look at the facts. Then ask, do the facts fit the hypothesis? If so, the model may be good enough for rough predictions. For example, if most news sources say the weather will be sunny and you happen to live in Arizona, absent other sources, that prediction is probably true. Still, it's sometimes wise to have a bit of doubt and pack an umbrella if other sources disagree!

Another technique is to use media that can't be revoked easily. Physical books have this property along with newspapers, photographs and even old video tapes. The whole premise of Ray Bradbury's Fahrenheit_451 was based on the idea that the people who want to control society rely on people forgetting about past events. To solve this problem, they relied on a massive program of book burning. In George Orwell's book, 1984, that fictional world was also without books. Rather, people relied on flat screens for all of their communication and entertainment needs. Hmmm. Sound familiar? When people needed access to past information, they could look up archives. And this is where the character Winston Smith came in. In the story there is a description of Winston Smith's job. At work, Winston describes, the archives would be edited, facts changed, then filed again. The old media would then be thrown down a "memory hole". The function is opposite what it's name would suggest. It was a hole in the wall with a chute connected to an incinerator in the basement.

However, revisions of history regularly happen in the real world too. Rather large stories are forgotten like this one. Physical media insures stories are remembered or at least forgotten more slowly. Even if the stories are inaccurate, having them in physical form at least prevents quick manipulation of stories one way or another. That means critical thought at critical moments can have a chance of happening.

The last and most important thing is to not rely on mass media. Take notice of what's going on around your town and city. Talk with your neighbors to get verbal history. Perhaps do a bit of gossip. Talk with older people and learn the oral history of your city or town from the perspective of the ones who lived it. Sometimes a change in the seemingly trivial is just as news worthy as what you'll see on a TV. The difference is, the changes happening in your neighborhood will more likely affect you than anything happening overseas.

Interships and co-ops- cheap till it's not

A few years, I had a conversation with one of my friends about how it would be possible to make an enormously profitable company by using nothing but interns who were required to work for welfare benefits. As is frequently the case, if I can think it, somebody else is already doing it.

For years companies and schools would hunt together for cheap help. The practice was widespread in the graphic arts fields, radio and television fields. Their preferred prey would be a matriculated (tuition paying) student who needs to get "experience". So, they get the student to do an "internship" for "credit". However, the physical reality of this situation means they not only work for free, but pay college tuition to do it! The presumption is that the student would learn all sorts of useful skills. The reality is that they often only do very routine work. I've personally seen this and it was nothing short of employee exploitation. As an example, years ago, I was managing a Radio Shack. For about a month, I had a Syracuse University student employed in a sales position. During his stay, he made a little bit over minimum wage being a sales clerk just like the other minimum wage sales clerks. I tried teaching him some basic selling techniques, how to stock shelves and count change - the same skills that were taught to others who didn't have a college degree. I hope he picked up something else since he was paying S.U. tuition just to be in my store!

I had thought that interning had fallen out of style. Nope. It's expanded in a big way. I recently found this out when I was offered a "co-op" position at an I.T. company. At first, I thought I would be working for a real co-op which usually requires "sweat equity" to "buy" a voting share on the board (rather than investing a bunch of money as a lump sum). However, that wasn't the deal. I was simply playing the supply-demand game and currently it's a buyer's market.

I've found several other "job offers" that were like this. One of the worst examples was at a company that make of all things, products for I.T. security! It is amazing these companies are taking such large risks with their business infrastructure. The position of an I.T. person is as much about trust as skill. An I.T. person can easily install tools to allow them to make off with production secrets, sell customer information, gather credit card information or simply embezzle. An inexperienced I.T. person can accidentally open security holes and knock out many computers at once. All but the lowest level I.T. person can have more access to company information than the chief financial officer. Yet for all this power, entry level I.T. workers are either underpaid or unpaid. The fact that I.T. interns sometimes make less than a floor sweeper really shows how saturated this field has become.

Judging from the existence of these low-ball offers, I can only conclude that there is currently a massive over supply of I.T. people or an under-supply of competent management. Other industries that have legitimate shortages of workers frequently offer training deals or bonuses for joining. That's rare in I.T. except for very specialized skills. Ah, but the market is constantly changing. Here's to hoping it will start changing for the better soon!

Time to retool with a visit to the innovators guild

The conventional economy is undergoing changes. I realize this as I contrast how my father's generation and my generation differ in terms of occupations. Had I known even 10 years ago what I know now, I would have no problem finding employment at top dollar. Now, it's very difficult to find paid work at all. The difference? What I know now is now known to more people. So, I need to find a way to re-gain some exclusivity in the market place.

One of my favorite places to do this is at the Syracuse NY hackerspace. Being in Syracuse, it's a bit far for me to regularly travel to. However, it's still worth an occasional trip. So, I decided to stop by to see if I could do some networking (more social than technical)

The event I participated in this time was soldering instruction. The exercise was to put together an Arduino kit. Although there wasn't quite enough time to finish up my board, it did get me interested in the technology. Thanks to the soldering tips I received that night, it was easy to quickly finish up the through-hole soldering at home. It is nice to know my soldering skills are still good. The board works flawlessly!

The idea of the Arduino is to have an open source, low cost platform available to people so they can build small low cost electronic projects. The most popular board uses a "shield" approach which allows for easy expansion with supplemental electronics such as temperature sensors, RFID sensors, lights, relays and other ready-made boards. It also gives a nice platform for making user designed boards too. Rather than requiring an expensive programmer and support electronics, the boards can be programed with only a USB cable.

This technology, combined with RepRap technology, could in theory allow people to engage in manufacturing of niche products right in their own home! Just as sewing machines allowed some households to make their own clothes and occasionally get extra income from selling wedding dresses, a person could make electronic products for their own use and possibly make some money servicing niche local markets with custom electronic products.

The Arduino is only one technology which is at the hackerspace. There are others. From analog radio to video production, the space is frequently a fountain of ideas and answers. The only problem for me is that it's quite far away. So, I can't visit physically as often as I would want. However, being a technology group, it's still possible to visit it virtually. It's at http://SIG315.org.

I'm also working on a project using the board I built. If you want to know more, visit http://plasticnerd.blogspot.com

Sequestering carbon dioxide

Some say the answer to global warming is to sequester carbon dioxide from power stations as it's burned. Even if this idea was technically practical, my opinion is that it's doomed to failure. The reason has little to do with technology and everything to do with human nature.

"If you have enough of anything, it's valuable"

The example on the right illustrates the point. To most people, manure is something to be removed as soon as possible. Very elaborate and expensive sewer systems have been constructed to remove this product. Yet other people have become rich selling manure. So, it's likely that sequestered carbon from coal fired power plants would present a similar opportunity.

Just as a manure vendor with a large amount of material will eventually find a market for that product, somebody will figure out a way to sell railway cars full of sequestered coal plant byproducts. Short term, the most likely market will be the U.S. government. It's yet another way for politicians to subsidize the fossil fuel industry while getting a re-election subsidy themselves. By the time the public realizes this, the U.S. government will likely have entered into multi-year contracts that will force the government to pay top dollar to transport the carbon to underground in former gas wells. But will that really solve the problem? It might be possible to economically transport the gas to an underground location and successfully contain the gas. It might even be efficient rather than having the problem of Ethanol where it takes nearly the same amount of energy put in as is released. However, assuming it was efficient and technically possible, there is another problem. There is more than one way for gas to escape.

The fact is, storage facilities might be able to be built to withstand the pressures of escaping gas but few systems can withstand government corruption! It's a good bet that this resource will simply be re-sold a few years later by private companies as is now being done with helium reserves. Unlike other coal fired waste products such as mercury or sulfur, carbon dioxide is non-toxic (in the same sense water is) and would be made relatively pure in the process of being compressed. This makes it an attractive resource to re-sell or even steal.

Due to this, it's likely that railway cars and trucks of this material will re-appear in the open market. If prices become low, percolating the last dregs out of tired oil wells becomes economical. If prices become still lower, I suspect entirely new uses will develop too. Perhaps inexpensive dry-ice powered camping refrigerators will appear in the market. Perhaps people will insist on auto tire inflation with dry CO2 just as some buy nitrogen tire fill-ups now. Compressed air engines may also appear on the market, fueled by inexpensive CO2. I know not the uses that will come into being if gas sequestering coal plants are built. However, human nature being what it is, I am relatively sure that zero profit geological formations will not be the final destination for most captured carbon dioxide.

A visit to Green Drinks of Syracuse

The event was at the hotel Skyler. The building was a former library turned hotel. It has a very nice new lounge and bar area with high prices to match. I decided to try to be ecological and drive my motorcycle there. In spite of the reasonably warm temperatures, most people were driving automobiles rather than cycles. There were a small group of chemistry students from ESF who were taking the opportunity to network. There were also some Green Drink regulars too.

One of the interesting conversations was with a person who sold industrial gassifiers. Now there is a person in a high-growth industry! This industry barely existed 10 years ago. The last time I looked at the industry in 2001, I could find only a few references to WWII gassifiers used in transport, an article in Mother Earth news about a truck mounted gassifier and only a few industrial scale gassifiers such as the electric power plant in Burlington VT. Since then, there has been a huge amount of progress. Even with the temporally low natural gas prices, there has a been some tremendous progress in this technology.

Gassifiers can be setup to use several different types of woody biomass fuel. The image on the right shows a layout for an electrical generation station. Small models are good at providing efficient heat and some have been modified to power vehicles. Industrial scale ones can efficiently provide electricity as was done in Burlington VT in the late 70's. A rather new development is that some industrial scale units have the ability to produce relatively pure syngas which can be processed into polymer products such as transport fuel that can stay liquid at remarkably low temperatures. Some demonstration plants show that it is possible to provide a non-gelling diesel fuel from woody biomass. The production price of this diesel equivalent might be as low as $10 a gallon. Very encouraging news!

For more on gassifiers (at least the older ones) visit HERE.

The possibility of a newer better world

I'll admit have not read the book "Ecotopia". From what I can gather, it's a fantasy novel about how several western states broke off from the rest of the U.S. and decided to abolish the car, embrace vegan diets and try to live in harmony with nature. At least, that's my uninformed cynic synopsis. However, even if the plot seems a bit sketchy, the book probably has some good practical ideas on how to make life be better. I say this based on an article about the author.

...Chick had left a final document on his computer, something he had been preparing in the months before he knew he would die, and asked if TomDispatch would run it. Indeed, we would. It’s not often that you hear words almost literally from beyond the grave -- and eloquent ones at that, calling on all Ecotopians, converted or prospective, to consider the dark times ahead. Losing Chick’s voice and his presence is saddening. His words remain, however, as do his books, as does the possibility of some version of the better world he once imagined for us all.

Maybe his book is OK. Maybe not. However, his last brief work "Epistle to the Ecotopians" is worth a read. Farewell Ernest Callenbach!

Short term engineering

The other day a friend of mine needed help changing a starter battery in their vehicle. Little did I know the trouble I was in for! I have a Subaru on the left. The Subaru battery is clearly visible in the middle. Easy to see. Easy to replace if needed. On the right is the engine compartment of a Ford van. Finding the battery at all was challenging! Changing it out took a while since quite a bit of other stuff needed to be removed to get to the battery at all!Cars have been around a while. However, the Ford engineers apparently forgot the basics of car design. Battery lifetimes are no secret. They need replacing on occasion. For that matter, gasoline mileage of a van is still laughably low at 19MPG. That design is a symptom of a problem. The problem is that American cars are designed to be sold rather than to work. So, engineers change things around in the name of style rather than function. Marketing trumps engineering! The end result is a stupid battery layout like that makes the car become something to be disposed of rather than to be maintained. Naturally, selling more cars due to this is desirable to U.S. automotive companies since car sales in the US are caused by a rather inelastic demand.

Looking at the Fukushima disaster, I feel the G.E. engineers must have been under similar non-engineering pressures but on a much larger scale. Today's reactors aren't designed to last 10,000 years. Not even close! Otherwise they would likely be large hulking invulnerable pyramid like things made of limestone. Instead, today's reactors are designed with the minimum of materials which should just be good enough to deliver profits for about 50 years give or take half a century. Long term safety is treated as an accessory rather than a fundamental requirement. Squeezing short term profits out of a nuclear facility in the name of shareholder value is the only reason I can see for designing reactors the way they are. I mean, would any engineer thinking even 100 years ahead really put radioactive fuel that is flammable when exposed to air in a swimming pool a couple of floors above the ground in an earthquake zone next to an ocean? Yes, there probably was some savings in land cost. However, I'm pretty sure the shareholders aren't enjoying the property tax savings now!

Here is an article on what the experts think is going on in one of the reactors now Very scary!

So, how can the nuclear industry be fixed? Simple. Change the engineering criteria. There is a saying in software engineering. You can make a piece of software better, cheaper or faster. Pick two.
What if we pick only "better" and "faster" in the sense that dealing with nuclear waste eventually needs to get done. Engineers can design bridges for say the "hundred year flood" or in some cases such as the Hoover Dam, the "ten thousand year flood". What is needed is to design a new type of reactor that can be fueled with "waste" material for the ten-thousand year spam of time. The reactors don't need to be particularly efficient. Just incredibly safe. Perhaps they could simply be giant monolithic units that can be shipped to various federal government buildings to be used as heat sources for central heating. Mixing nuclear material with glass and further encasing it in high quality concrete wrapped in thick stainless steel may be an approach that would work. Such units not only would save the government money in future heating cost but their proximity would offer a strong motivation to politicians to have such units produced correctly!

Solving resource depletion and climate change

I'm sure it's been said before but it's worth repeating. "The first step to making a better world us imagining that it's possible at all". The author below has taken that step and has some practical solutions to going further. What If We Stopped Freaking Out Over Climate Change. It's worth a read.

2012 upstate cooperatives summit

This event was held at the Syracuse South Side Innovation center. The center is sponsored by Syracuse University. They did a good job restoring the former warehouse into a nice looking business center. It's clearly a resource that has a need to balance community wants with the need for security and safety. To this end, they offer a card access system to members that allows access using an automated badge system. Here, a few of us can be seen gathering at the side entrance to be let in.

Inside, I found some glass enclosed cubical areas. The furniture, computers and carpeting seem reasonably new. The main part of the center appears to be a large main lecture hall surrounded by several business incubator offices. This large room and a smaller conference room were where the talks were held. There were other offices that I presume had shared resources that the tenants could use.

I was impressed that the hosts were able to offer low cost tickets (or no cost for unemployed people such as myself) and still put on a good show. After a short check-in period, the talks started. They were all interesting. Like so many events of this nature, I really wanted to be in two places at once!

There were several messages that I got from the event. Co-ops come in many forms.

• Worker Co-Ops, (can be for profit or not)
• Membership non-profit
• General catch-all
• Agricultural co-ops

Here's some other quick trivia. Co-ops are more popular in times of economic distress. Co-ops (including banks) do over two trillion dollars a year in business. Co-ops need at least 5 members. Owners are "members", each having one share and one vote. They have the same personal asset protection benefits of a corporation. The Bylaws define how the co-op operates and also specifies how it disbands should the members desire that. Dividends are legally limited to 12% of capital. Co-ops tend to have a better success rate than other business structures. A new development is that co-ops can now issue non-voting "preferred" stock for investors. I didn't catch the jurisdiction of this. So, it may be state based laws that govern this rather than national. When forming a co-op, it's wise to deal with lawyers and accountants that specializes in them.

While there was much more covered in the talks, here is my highly biased opinion of co-ops. In my opinion, a co-op member is essentially "buying" their job. The buy-in amount is typically quite large. However, members sometimes "buy their share" over time through salary deduction. This of course creates a large incentive for co-op members to succeed and reduces employee turnover. However, it also requires a great deal of trust since such a situation can lead to self-exploitation of co-op members.

Second, unlike corporations, co-ops are not legally required to make shareholder profit be a primary goal. Instead, they can choose to measure success in other ways. Since the co-op isn't a slave to maximizing short term profits, this is potentially a very powerful business structure!

Third, co-ops still need to provide a good "Value Proposition" to all involved parties. Just like any business, they need to succeed in terms of offering better prices, better quality or better variety. Working with "anchor institutions" such as universities seems to be a niche strategy that co-ops are uniquely able to do. Non-profits sometimes have "goals" that can be more easily achieved via a co-op rather than through a conventional profit oriented business. For example, minimizing CO2 in some operations may be a technique that conventional business cannot do since it would not be as profitable to the shareholders.

During the Q&A session, I asked if it was beneficial to start as another business structure then convert to a co-op. I then asked several other people about this. The consensus was, If a co-op is what is desired, then it should start that way. The one exception to this would be for an existing business to be bought by the employees while offering a fair deal to the former owners.

Other points I picked up was a review of how the federal government makes laws. This was during the discussion of the proposed law HR3367 which would provide funding for assisting the formation of new co-ops in urban areas. I had forgotten how much a law could be changed by going through various committees in both Congress and the Senate! Reviewing the lobbying process, I'm surprised any law survives even remotely in it's original form.

Finally, at the end, the "Dream Freedom Revival" performed for the group. They also involved the audience (I even got up on stage myself). It was performance art at it's best. Very motivational! The food was good too. It was served on reusable plates, was disposed of organically and dishes were cleaned with the help of the guests. Overall, the whole event was very well run.

The talks covered can be seen at http://cny.coop/schedule
There is an active discussion group at http://lanyrd.com/2012/cnycoop/
They also have a Facebook page
There is a directory in case you want to find a coop in NY state.
The main site is at http://www.cny.coop/

Why are humans the only animal that needs to "pay" to exist?

Somebody asked me why humans are the only animal that needs to pay to live. To understand the question, one must first understand what "payment" is, which is usually the exchange of "money". Money has become very complex stuff. Most people would say the $20 dollar bill in their wallet was money. Trading a $20 for a tangible item at a convenience store happens countless times a day. Doing the same with a check or credit card is effective too. In fact, if the store owner thinks you are trustworthy, you may even be able to swap an IOU note for an item or two. Yet nature doesn't care about money or pricing at all. A wild hungry animal is as likely to eat you as not no matter what your credit score is. If you're trapped alone on an island, you'll be just as hungry with or without a knapsack full of gold or hundred dollar bills. So, money is apparently a human construct.

Money is simply one of many relationships two or more humans can have. For example, suppose you were to go back in time to become a peasant in ancient Japan. Suppose a Shogun warrior then shows up demanding tribute as was common in that time. Here's a guy who has state of the art weaponry, armor and training of that day. As a peasant, you have a choice. You can either fight him and likely be destroyed or pay him to leave you alone. You could offer him chickens, rice or perhaps an IOU for part of a future harvest. This is the ultimate basis of taxes. Someone, be it the IRS, the Sheriff of Nottingham, or your local mafia group wants a payoff. If it's a government, the payoff happens to be called a "tax".

Furthermore, since wealth is frequently too bulky to conveniently be carried away, they want their tax represented in a form such as an IOU, gold, check or most often paper currency. That way, YOU eventually provide the physical wealth or service to them when and where they want it in exchange for more money to pay more future taxes. This special form of money is referred to as "paper currency." In return, a government usually enforces real-estate laws, maintains the transportation infrastructure and has a police force to protect not only it's existence but the existence of wealth producers among other services (all making the populace more efficient to either be taxed more or at least not protest as much when they are taxed). So, there you have it. In a nutshell, the primary value of currency is for paying taxes. Since nearly everyone pays taxes either directly or indirectly, government currency has developed into an indirect wealth storage system of sorts. Other forms of "money" such as IOUs or gold still exist but currency seems to be the way most forms of money exist today.

Many people in the U.S. have found having a "job" is the easiest way to attract currency to pay taxes. Most citizens pay property tax (or rent, which is property tax + profit), sales taxes, income tax and plus assorted usage taxes from automobile registrations to building permits. Along the way, opportunists such as bankers or business people profit from manipulating this system in their favor. Some common ways of doing are by simply by buying low then selling high, charging interest or issuing credit. The video "Money as Debt" explains how bankers profit from controlling the monetary system in more detail. That video is one of the easiest ways to understand how money works today.

So basically, this is why humans appear to "pay" to live. Each, a person has a choice. Either pay off their warlord (or government) or become the government. Once in charge, the new government will often issue their own "currency" for property tax enforcement since that is the essence of government power. However, being the person in charge is lots of work and the position can sometimes have very crappy job security. Other people will try assassinations (or elections) since they think they can do a better job. In addition, other governments will be trying to take over the territory either through military or economic action. So, being in charge isn't always good. If it were possible to ask Saddam Hussein about this, I think he would agree.

Resources for the newly unemployed

Here are some job loss tips that may be helpful.

Get registered with the unemployment system as quickly as possible.
Keep in mind that you may not qualify for benefits. Many job categories such as sales jobs or temp jobs prevent you from getting any benefits at all.
In most cases owning your own business also disqualifies you too.  However, before giving up, meet with a counsler. You may find benefits such as having civil service exam fees waived or special categories you fit into that might give you some indirect benefit.  If nothing else, there are usually reasonably priced computers, copiers and faxes available. 

• For a regular layoff, no problem. In fact some cheap companies have their seasonal employees go on unemployment as part of their business plans.. 
• For a firing or "letting go", expect a fight.  They will likely try to deny you benefits. Reviewing the case might take up to 8 weeks. So, have some savings to live on. They will eventually contact you to review your case but only if you register with unemployment ASAP! 
• If YOU paid into the system via a deduction on your paycheck, you have a strong claim that shouldn't be dismissed because your former employer wants to save some money.
• Some jobs don't qualify you at all! Self employment falls into this category. However, being a board director of your own company might still allow you to collect. So, when setting up a company, give yourself a  parachute in case your company fails!

While you're in your first week of unemployment.

• Contact all people references you intend to use. Give them a call. Make sure their contact info is current.
  
• Update your resume with what you've been doing recently. Collect past awards, certificates and attaboy awards. You may have more experience than you think!
• Do an immediate search of the area for similar jobs. If you are lucky, you may just slide into another job without even drawing unemployment!
  
• Take time to visit the dentist, doctor, optometrist, barber and auto repair. Do long term things you would normally take time off to do.  Your next job will not give you time to do these tasks.
• Deal with your 401K. You hopefully will be fully employed so you won't have time to do that in your next job either!

Some unemployment issues to consider
At least in NY, you only have 28 weeks of benefits. However, you don't need to draw on that claim right away. So, you can take on high paid work without losing your claim if the work is only for a specific period of time (eg. 3 month contract) Just make sure you TELL the unemployment people this work is of a fixed period. If you QUIT, you lose your original claim. However, if your contract isn't renewed, you can keep your original claim for up to a year.

• If, after the second week, you aren't getting a check, make an appointment with an unemployment job counselor. They may not be too useful in finding a job. However, they would know of most benefits you can qualify for.
  
• If you DO get benefits, life is good. You can take a job that's really challenging and you'll have a temporary safety net for up to a year. Perhaps taking a job at a shaky start-up company is something you want to try. Maybe you want to try your hand at direct sales (which normally doesn't qualify for unemployment benefits). Just insist on a fixed probation period when you'll be assessed.  If you succeed, that's great! If you fail, you still have your original claim as a safety net.

If you have a 401K or 403B, grab it quick to put it  somewhere else safe even if its in a moneymarket at your bank.

• Your local credit union or bank can assist you with that transfer. Put it somewhere safe & short term. Perhaps a 6 month CD so you don't need to deal with thinking about it right away.
• The penalties and taxes for drawing from 401K or retirement are severe enough (20% plus early withdraw penalties plus you pay taxes right away) that it competes with credit card debt as to which is worse. It may be that taking on high interest credit card debt makes better financial sense.

After the first two weeks, you may be facing longer term unemployment. If so, here are some things to check.

Welfare - Unfortunately, you need to be incredibly poor for this to be an alternative.

• "temporary" welfare still exists. However, be prepared to say goodbye to good credit. Also, say goodbye to everything else too. I found out as a single person, having a house or car and over $100 in the bank or $400 in assets disqualifies me for virtually every program.  There is also a two month wait even if I did qualify. Not to say it shouldn't be checked out. However, don't expect much. If you have no car, no possessions and have an eviction notice, it's worth checking out. Before doing that,  close your bank account. You won't be needing that, perhaps ever. Oh, and in the spirit of "workfare" you must take a job they say and keep any job assigned, regardless of what it is.
  
• Welfare is divided into different services. Qualifying for one makes it easier to qualify for another. For example, getting home heating assistance (HEAP) usually makes it easier to get food stamps. Getting foods stamps makes it possible to get Medicaid and so on.
• Look into income based programs such as assistance with home repairs or insurance subsidies. You may temporarily qualify for them!

 Review cash sources

• Savings
  
• Unemployment
• Rental or storage space income
  
• Tax rebate
  
• Consider selling items that have high value but low use such as recreational vehicles 
  (unless living in one is a fallback plan)
  
• Potential loan sources such as credit cards, friends or family
• Cash advances from credit cards.
  

Review cash drains

• Anticipated legal costs (if any)
• Anticipated medical (if any)
  
• Get dental work, visit optometrist, get checkup. (If you plan to re-enter workforce)
  
• Mortgage payment (May be able to refinance, but it hurts your credit)
• auto-withdraw for IRA (turn it off)
  
• Health club (keep it. Keeping healthy helps morale)
  
• Home & car insurance (consider a monthly plan if paying yearly is too much)
• Anticipated property taxes (can sometimes split these payments up too)
• Fees from late payments.

Try to reduce the costs you have

• Do laundry at friends instead of at a laundromat (you'll find out who your good friends are)
• Heat/Electric. Wear sweaters and   convert to fixed rate pricing. 
• Water bill (install a flow reducing shower head - about $15)
• Cable - dump it. Replace CATV and Internet with a prepaid smartphone.You'll need both phone and data for job searches (Just make sure the phone can teather or perform as a hotspot)
• To conserve fuel and car maintenance walk, bike and bus more. Don't be stupid about it. Drive to job interviews. That way, you'll look and feel your best.
• Start a table top garden. It's low cost and VERY good therapy.
• Although single people don't usually qualify for food stamps, they can still visit a food pantry with only minimal questions asked. When your finances are better, donate back so they stay around.
• If you rent and cannot pay, the eviction process is usually 30-45 days but it can sometimes be drawn out beyond that. If you think you'll be unemployed for the long term,  get a legal packet from your court house to see what the eviction process is (as if you are evicting someone yourself). That information will tell you what your landlord can and cannot legally do.
  
• If living in a house, foreclosure can give you time but once started, it cannot be stopped!  After all, the bank wants your equity.
  

What you'll probably find is that you can't live on savings forever. However, you can usually go longer than you think. It's critical to give yourself enough time to think about career options. You're now outside the box. Time to start thinking like it!

We're all temporary employees now

No matter how well you do your job or how many years you do it, there are only two tiny words that separate you from the street. Those two words are "You're fired". It recently happened to me (downsized) but I'm not alone.

It has happened for millions and will continue to happen for a multitude of reasons. The cause could be from an oil shock, financial meltdown, a change in a workplace business model or in my case, office politics. This post isn't about what can be done to prepare for such a loss. Rather, the main theme of this post is to reinforce the fact that nobody has a "permanent" job.

Managers have realized that firing people rarely means an end to business. The managers themselves are interchangeable too, maybe more so since their turnover seems to happen at a greater rate. Even owners can be indirectly "fired" by customers. In fact, the "permanent" employee is now a rare find. Keep in mind that any given building can be full of people who were not there twenty years ago and won't be there 20 years from now. They key isn't to be able to resist change, it's to be able to successfully react to it.

So, it's always important to be prepared for an unexpected job transition. It can happen at any time for most any reason. Always try to develop a set of portable skills that can be immediately useful to another employer. Also, try to build enough financial security to be able to shop carefully for another place to use your skills. Also, keep in mind when one door shuts, several more now can open. Choose carefully and today's tragedy can transform into tomorrow's bounty.

A summary of the peak oil situation - in cartoon form

Below is a link to a video with the world's best summary video of resource depletion with the world's worst title. If it wasn't recommended to me, I would not have bothered watching it. However, if you can ignore the title, it's worth a watch.

There's no tomorrow

As a contrast to addressing the problems and solving them, check out

George Carlin's view of Global Warming.