Nissan leaf review - the good, the bad and the annoying.

In my opinion, a combination of legislative agendas, marketing mishaps and a chip shortage made the Leaf lose it's first place position.  Unfortunately, I bought a car during the chip shortage which caused exactly the wrong message to be sent to Nissan's marketing team.  They probably think the features in the SV trim is what people want rather than the S plus model - when the exact opposite is true.   Below is why.  

One reason I'm a repeat Nissan customer is that the company has delivered impressive results in the past.  In 2012 the first generation leaf hit the road.  Unlike small run electric cars of the past, the leaf series managed to be a mass-market luxury compact car that stuffed every convenience possible in the package.  The basic 2013 model, which I acquired used, included a decent radio/cd/satellite system and a well laid out driving control arrangement.  It also had other nice features such as hands-free mobile phone, key-less entry and heads-up display for speed.  The trim I had also included a fast DC charging option and a winter package including heated seats and mirrors.  Although I only fast-charged once, it was nice to know the option worked.  

In the 2012 models, many users reported temporary battery problems due to low temperatures and more permanent battery problems due to chemistry degradation.  As for my experience with the 2013 model, my battery degradation was minimal.  I traded mine in a few years later still having full bars. My car's primary weakness was an EPA rated 85 mile range, which when driven in the cold gave it only a 50ish mile range.  Other than range, the rest of the car performed quite well. For my short commute to work, it was well suited as an inexpensive second car.

Over the years, I noticed that Nissan has incrementally improved the leaf.  Each year the basic bug-eye chassis of the car stayed nearly the same but the battery capacity gradually increased.  In 2018 , Nissan decided to introduce a nicer looking 40KW model with a claimed range of 150 miles.  Unlike the unique electric car look of before, this was a more conservative look.  It was a car that looked very similar to the popular gasoline car, the Versa.  When the new 2019 car came out, I decided to trade my older 2013 for a new car to get the better range and nicer body style.  

I was very impressed with the 2019 model.  Although no car is perfect, the "S" trim level was pretty close.  Really, it still is the best car I've ever owned.  The 40kw battery proved to be more than sufficient to go to any part of the nearest city with range to spare.  Acceleration was decent.  Standard features included cruise control, heated seats, heated steering wheel and it still had a retro CD player, which is hard to find in newer cars.  Most important, it had a sensible car control layout with real buttons rather than a touch screen.  It was just enough technology without being too much.  It was simple.  It worked.  Thanks to the 3rd party leafspy app, I could turn off the annoying low speed driving and backup noises.  From then on, it was the quiet pleasant driving car that I always wanted.  I was happy. The neighbors, not needing to wake up to my car sounds each morning were happy.  All was well with the world. 

Then, I did a very foolish thing.  Since the tax incentives were still in effect, I got greedy for more range.  I decided that if 40KW was good, a car with a 62KW battery would be great!  So, I sold my wonderful 2019 car and tried buying a 2022 S+ model.  Unfortunately, due to Covid, the chip shortage made it easy to sell my car.  However, after selling the car, I found that it was almost impossible to by another one!  I couldn't find a dealer that had an S+ model!   I eventually ended my search and bought an SV trim instead.  I simply accepted that I was getting some features I didn't really care for but at least had a car with more range.  I figured I could just ignore the extra features I didn't want.

Unfortunately, between 2019 and 2022 Nissan took a great value and turned it into an average one.  

First the good.  The 2022 range has indeed improved from the 2019.  During cold snowy days, with snow tires, the range does decrease.  However, I can reliably get 160 real miles (80 round trip) driving at any speed even in below zero weather.  Also, because the car has a heat pump rather than relying on engine heat cabin is very quick to warm up.  Even though the 62kw model is heavier than the 40kw model, acceleration remains good.  Also, I rate the sound system audio and FM radio reception as being exceptionally good.  The 4 direction backup camera with anti-collision is also handy for parking.  Due to the hood being a bit lower, visibility is also marginally better than the 2019.  The LED headlamps provide decent lighting at night and running lights plus fog lamps are standard.  The seat, featuring heat and electric settings such as lumbar support, can be made to be very comfortable.  Although I didn't really need the dashboard map, I found it works rather well.  However, the hands-free voice recognition feature doesn't work as well as the 2019 since it requires SIRI and I find that program annoying.  Fortunately, the dashboard touchscreen is configurable.  So, instead of saying the number I want to dial, I use a quick-dial from the touchscreen.

One feature that I thought I would like on the 2022 would be adaptive cruise control. However, I found having snow gather on the car while driving can knock out the front collision sensor.  This does two things.  First, cruise control no longer works.  Second, a very annoying blinking amber light appears on the console. It  appears often enough that I've finally just covered the dashboard light with tape.   As for other features, such as lane departure and anti-collision, these are easily toggled off. 

Unfortunately, the presumably federally required digital noises diverge from the efficient silence an electric car should have.  First, there are the audio warnings. For example, when winter storms occur I get multiple messages saying "Winter storm warning".  One was OK. however, when I got six in quick succession, I thought was a bit much. Also, the warnings did not specify what direction the storm is coming from, just that it's x miles away.  When I drive in the general direction of a toll booth, I also get an audio warning - again no indication of where, just that it's nearby.  

My biggest gripe is that the 2022 touchscreen console is not as easy to operate as the 2019 S model that has real buttons and knobs.  That means that most features can be operated without eyes off the road.  Most features also can operate with gloves too. Contrast that with the touch screen model of the 2022 SV model.  I find I'm constantly removing my hands from my gloves and eyes from the road is both annoying and potentially dangerous.  There are two features I do wish were at least options.  First, there is a rear-windshield wiper, but no washer.  Second, I grew to love the heated mirrors that came with the 2013 model.  I really would have liked that option on the SV plus.

In summary, Nissan almost got it right.  The thing that Nissan needs to realize is that I didn't buy my new car for gee-wiz features.  I also didn't buy it to save on petrol. I bought it for basic mechanical simplicity.  No oil changes, a motor with minimal moving parts and a simple transmission that should last for years. The 2019 S model was close to perfect for being a reliable daily driver and also happened to be a nice quiet driving experience. The 2022 adds nice features, but I still would have been happier with the basic model.   Still, it was better (for me) than any other car choice I had during the great car shortage of 2021.  

P.A.C.E.U.S. Awards

Diminishing returns due to complexity appears to be a theme that is appearing in more and more systems.  This phenomena appears to be more a cultural problem than a technical one. From desktop software to apps on phones, each software "upgrade" seems at times to offer more problems rather than benefits. 

 

I originally was going to offer a series of awards for this.  However, due to an overwhelming amount of potential nominations in the commercial software realm, it is just more efficient to have the nominees print their own trophies. The preferred printing material should be brown, ideally made from food based media such as chocolate or maybe...

 

So, about those awards!  

The acronym PACEUS (pronounced pace us) stands for...

People

Against the

Creation of

Excellent

Usable

Software.

The main idea behind PACEUS isn't about recognizing usable software or affordable software.  Rather, it's software that simply maximizes "Timeburning". That is, the more time a user spends using the software the better - even if the user gets no benefit for doing so. The PACEUS principle is based on the following: Difficult expensive software = Long time configuring software = hours spent paying attention to software = popular software = claim of best software!

PACEUS points are cumulative. Point earning is of course subjective.  Here are some suggested criteria that can be used for point accumulation:

• Make software browser dependent but don't specify which browser or edition to use.  Just make some features not work or even be visible depending on the browser.  Bonus if two or more browsers plus command line plus legacy Java (or Flash) environments are required to get full functionality.
• Instead of functional menus, use unique icons with no labels or hover-over tool tips.  Waste screen space such that user needs a supersize monitor just to click "OK" in a corner.  Also, promote feature of context sensitive help but only redirect users to a website homepage. Make the index search feature so bad that Google works better - and have critical solutions behind portal so search engines can't index.
• Require, but do not include downloadable software components for proprietary hardware.  Make sure such components are "free" to use with the product and would only ever work on that hardware but require customer to contact sales before download.  Bonus points if customers tend to infect themselves with malware due to downloading software from other sketchy websites in a desperate attempt to get their hardware to work. 
• “Hide” necessary software features but prominently feature top10 lists and other screens that endlessly promote how great the software is and how things can be done! (not how-to, just that it could be done)
• Have expiring “features” such as security certificates, software license renewals or upgrades which require human intervention, ideally only be completed under direction of remote tech support. Ideally, expiring features are buried deep within the system and cripple the system in unpredictable ways with no notification of cause.
  
• Have an unclear licensing model with an onerous purchasing and renewal process.  Points awarded based on hours lost spent viewing webinars or even whole courses offered to guide the user through how they can license their product.
• Sell the product as a "hybrid service” that require continuous Internet access to work yet also requires user to host pieces of the product using their own server resources. Then,  have that software or hardware be unreliable enough that a duplicate on-site appliance also needs to be installed.
• "feelgood" controls instead of functional controls.  For example, an "off" switch, which really should be called a "sleep" switch, should require multiple steps with multiple confirmations to just turn off an item.  Even then, item should still consume power just in case the user selects to turn item back "on".
• Highest points awarded for the following: Make support options for crippled equipment dependent on functioning of that equipment!  For example, if an email server needs support, make sure to provide support through email.  If network equipment fails due to licensing, make sure licensing depends on connectivity to the Internet!
  

Nissan Leaf versus Subaru Forester

The cost per mile winner - Nissan Leaf.

Starting in 2015, I decided to do a 5 year experiment.  For this time, I had two cars.  The first car, the Nissan Leaf, was bought with the idea that having a relatively simple and new car would save money.  Being a 2013, it is still new enough that most parts have not worn out.  If they did break, they are under warranty.  At the bargain after tax price of $13,800 it was more than I had ever paid for a car.  However,  I anticipated the per-year cost should be lower than a gasoline car.  First, being electric, it lacks many of the things that are typically expensive repairs on regular cars.  For example, there is no muffler to rust, gas tank to leak and so on.  The engine and transmission are also very simple and have been cited as statistically being around 25 times as reliable as a gasoline car. Oh, and I would not need to buy any gasoline for the life of the car.  As for energy use, I found it used about as much electricity as a small window air conditioner.  That is, it has apparently added about $20 to my monthly electric bill.  It would eventually need a new battery pack, but if I junk it anytime after 6 years, I anticipate that I would be ahead of what I would have paid to drive a regular car over the same period of time..

The second car, my winter rat, was a used 2007 Subaru which I acquired at a slightly below market price of $5900.  I expected this car to have higher operating costs, but I thought it would still be overall cheaper due to the low acquisition cost.  At first, that was true.  During the winter of 2015-2016, I plowed through the snow with no problems other than adding a starting battery costing $130.  So far, so good.  Then, mid winter, the muffler needed to be replaced.  Also, I needed a new set of tires and oil needed to be changed.  Again, expected repairs.  Taken together, they were around $800.  As winter turned to Spring, the Subaru mostly sat in the driveway.  Due to driving the Leaf, the Subaru sat so much that I became concerned that I might need to put gasoline stabilizer in it's tank!  Also, staying in one place it was starting to cause four tiny tire indentations in my driveway!

Meanwhile, the Leaf continued to operate, requiring nothing more than a daily charge which was hardly noticeable on my utility bill. When I first got the leaf, I was concerned about the range.  So much so that I insisted the dealer deliver the car. However, I quickly realized my driving habits fit well within it's round-trip range.  Looking at my odometer, I found that I only drive around 20 miles a day to work (sometimes 30 on the weekend) and this is well within the Leaf's range even with heat or air conditioning operating.  I also noticed a nice surplus in my weekly budget due to not needing to buy gas.  It's only major repair was for a universal joint problem that created an occasional grinding noise but didn't disable the car. There was also a software upgrade for brakes, a defective seat heater and an air-conditioner pipe adjustment.  All replacements so far have been covered under the factory warranty. 

When I took the Subaru on it's first long trip, the real cost of maintaining an ICE car became apparent. During that drive, oil consumption suddenly became around a quart every 100 miles!  Once I got home, my mechanic traced the cause to a leaky oil pressure sensor gasket (one of three that this model car has). The gasket was cheap.  Replacing it was not - at close to $300 dollars.  Then, a few weeks later, the dreaded check-engine light appeared again and it started burning oil rather than leaking it!  Buying a car scanner $89 revealed a misfire in one of the cylinders.  A compression test, then removal of the heads, revealed the exhaust gasses had eroded some paths through the metal around the exhaust valves.  Fixing that required extensive and lengthy repairs, to the tune of two months of being off the road and a monetary cost of $3200!  

So far, the before-tax Forrester costs are...
Acquisition cost of Subaru(with tax) - $6500
Starting battery $130
Muffler & tire replacement ~ $800
Oil temperature gasket leak ~ $300
Bulk oil jug purchases to replace oil lost to leak ~$40
Scanner $89
Compression diagnosis $130
Engine head repair, including timing belt and serpentine belt replacement $3200
Total cost so far are approximately $11,189

if I had not had the leaf, I would have had  rental car costs in too.

Although the Forrester repair costs were abnormally high, the reviews for the 2007 model year show that I am hardly unique in having them.  Nor was I done with them.  Next,, my Forrester has developed a new power steering shudder and the struts developed a creaky sound.  As for insurance and registration savings,  the rates are comparable on either car.  Due to my bundling of insurance, it looks like I would gain around $500/yr savings if I gave up either one of the cars.  

As for miles driven, the Leaf clocked just over 10,000 miles that past year versus the Forrester at just under 2,000.  However, before concluding the Leaf was clearly the superior car on a cost-per-mile basis, consider that many of the Forrester's miles have been earned during very bad conditions.  The Forrester's winter performance has never been in doubt.   On several early mornings, when the temperatures were below zero and nary a snowplow was in sight, the Forester plowed through the cold snowy roads perfectly.

Unlike the Forrester, the Leaf's winter reliability depends heavily on snowplow clearing and a nightly opportunity to thaw in a warm garage.So, in my geographic area, it looks like the Nissan Leaf can fill a meaningful transportation niche for 3/4ths of the year. Unfortunately, my transportation choices are defined by peak performance demands.  That is, I still need a car that can go through deep morning snow (only 4 or 5 days a year) and survive roads covered with corrosive roadway salt.  Unfortunately, for now, that still requires a petrol car with AWD.

* Update: This April 2017, the Subaru had another large oil leak from a defective freeze plug.  That made my car briefly totally run out of oil. Fortunately, I had the common sense to stop the car before the engine seized and have it towed to the shop.  After a  $300 repair, the car is again mobile.  However, I found the rings are now shot and it's not cost effective for me to repair.  The car still worked but it needed to be topped up with oil every time I bought gasoline! I decided to sell it for $2300, ending the  experiment early.

Economics of 3-D printing in a post-peak oil world

This is a plastic part to a table that allows a network cable to go through a conference table.  At the moment, we only need one.  Take a guess on how much it is.  I'll give you some hints.   From the image you can see it's a relatively small size. It's made of relatively inexpensive plastic - HIPS to be precise but being made of ABS or other forms of plastic or even rubber wouldn't impact it's mostly aesthetic function. I'll give you the most important clue.  The real cost of this item isn't in material cost of the plastic (If you were to buy this material in quantity, the per-pound raw material cost is still under $0.10).  Rather, the bulk of the cost depends on proximity of the item to the place of need.  My proximity to the conference table is insignificant - only a room away.  However, my proximity to a supply of these things is where the real cost becomes apparent.

If I was hypothetically standing next to a barrel of these things at a factory, I could grab one and probably pay pretty close to the material cost of this item.  Assuming that factory did retail, and was expecting me to buy many more of these, I would say it's price would be around $0.15 ea.

If was at a local big box store such an item would probably be on a pegboard hook, wrapped in a plastic package with a description and a bar code.  The retail price with all package, processing, delivery and sales tax would drive the price up to just above a dollar.

All of the above prices don't take into consideration the searching time and true delivery cost of the item. The most direct way to see the delivery cost of an item is to order an item online and then have it delivered to your door.   Given postal rates, an individual can be expected to pay a minimum of around $8 for shipping  all but the smallest of items to their nearest postal box.  So, in the example above, that can increases the cut rate price of $0.15 to be around $8.15.

Even that expensive ordering option is not how we typically buy such items.  Instead, many of us get in our expensive car to drive to the nearest hardware store which is usually at least 15 minutes away.   Then spend half an hour looking through all the wall baggies, then find a retail clerk who is faster at searching baggies. Maybe they have one, maybe not. Assuming the item exists and is in-stock, we then expend more time driving back.  As can be seen in this example, the whole process can take a large amount of time even if no excessive traffic is encountered on the roadway.  If we were to pay ourselves even the new minimum wage of $15 an hour and split the miles driven over the life of the car, well, you know where I'm going with that. 

If we need the part at work, cost can still be high.  We need to count hourly time for searching for a part from an approved vendor.  Then print and submit the appropriate purchase order to the appropriate person. Even if the purchase order process is only asking a boss for approval, their time at their hourly rate is being used too.  Then, a small slice of time from accounting to process the order, then send a check.  Meanwhile, on the other side, someone needs to maintain a whole business infrastructure so their employee can pick the part, pack the part, then ship it to you.   The only bright side to this is that delivery costs may be shared if more than one of the same item is being ordered from that same vendor.

Contrast that to on-site manufacturing.  Just measure the diameter of the hole.  Start a CAD program (commercial or open source).  Then measure the part, draw the piece and export to a printer.  Assuming the printer is in working order and has a supply of plastic, there is no additional transport cost, reporting cost and relatively small wait time!  Plus, if another is needed at a later time, the cost is even lower!  The per-part price from a 3-D printer is still pretty high.  However, printers are getting more reliable and less expensive all the time.  Due to this, it is now possible to get saving from small batches of multiple items.  Just like multi-item orders make per-part costs lower, printers are now reliable enough to print multiples of parts unsupervised. The economics rarely make sense for hundreds of parts.  However, when only two or three relatively simple parts are needed, printing rather than ordering may someday become a less expensive option. 

Surviving outside the financial system

Unfortunately, when it comes to living in the U.S. there is sometimes no alternative to cash....or is there? Depending on who you pay tax to, it may be possible to either pay taxes with items or at worst sell items for cash. So, it may be possible to survive with very little cash (assuming one doesn't get trapped into the medical or  prison industrial systems). The principle is based on this article which showed how one individual turned one red paperclip into a house. Now, the article is not to show that you simply need a drawer full of paperclips to solve your financial needs. Rather, it's to show how it is possible to show how to barter profitably.

Bartering isn't about living without working. Rather, it is a way of directly participating in the economy. With the exception of transport costs and perhaps a bit of marketing cost, bartering can be remarkably efficient when compared to the regular economy. The unconventional economy or black and gray markets tend to be able to avoid some if not all of the following business costs:

• Income tax
• Credit card transaction fees
• Bank fees (just for having a "business account" at the bank)
• Business license or permits
• Cost increases for various services due to having "business rates" rather than consumer rates for utilities such as electric/phone/internet.
• higher rents in "commercial zones" rather than "residential" zones.
• frivolous lawsuits
  
• fancy packaging
• global transport costs (if not manufactured locally)
• Shoplifting
  
• Cost of accounting in terms of time/money spent maintaining compliance for the tax authorities.  Eg. Within the state sales tax.  (When all costs are counted, this cost of compliance can exceed the actual taxes owed for a start up business.)
  

Only the first category of cost is illegal to try to avoid.  It is perfectly sensible to try to avoid the other ones.  Each cost may be small, but there are so many of them!  No wonder the regular economy is dying! There's only so much that can be taken out of  transactions before products don't have enough profit to be worth selling! However, as yesterday's retail industry dies, other solutions that avoid at least some of these rapidly rising financial costs are taking their place. Craigslist, Ebay, pawn shops, roadside produce stands and even people selling items out of the trunk of their car may be able to remain out of the reach of at least some of these financial leaches.

Is it possible to make a living this way? Perhaps. Some T.V. shows such as "pawn kings" show it may be possible to avoid some costs. However, like any business, the money making activity is not always obvious. It may just be that the participants make more money selling the TV show than on everyday selling activities. So, it may not yet be economical for many to exist in this way. However, each year, more people try.

Timing personal collapse

There are many ways of interpreting when personal collapse happens - and what personal collapse looks like. 

For one particularly good example of what personal collapse looks like, see Paul Krugman's article. 
By security, I mean that you have enough resources and backup that the ordinary emergencies of life won't plunge you into the abyss. This means having decent health insurance, reasonably stable employment and enough financial assets that having to replace your car or your boiler isn't a crisis.
By opportunity I mainly mean being able to get your children a good education and access to job prospects, not feeling that doors are shut because you just can't afford to do the right thing.

As for when it happens, I find that it depends on the definition of collapse.  I did a previous posting on this topic a while back.  http://lifeafterpeakoil.blogspot.com/2012/06/apocalypse-when.html

When developing a response plan to economic collapse, one useful thought experiment would be to imagine if a person was to lose their primary means of making a living due to some economic upheaval. What is a good plan for that?  For me, this became more than just an academic topic.  A few years ago, through a comedy of circumstances, I found myself suddenly unemployed.   Expenditures such as mortgage, taxes and utilities were about as expected - and unemployment insurance (plus what I had saved previously) would cover those expenses for at least a year or possibly more.  I had also been preparing for some sort of financial disruption due to peak oil for several years earlier.  So, I had more than enough of some items like food and gardening supplies.  I even had a bicycle, good shoes and warm clothes.  Most important, I lived in a city which made most every need or want within walking distance.  At the time, the weather was mild, going into summer.  So, my home heating costs were low and my pedestrian transportation option made my gasoline expenditure almost vanish!  However, I found I would quickly run short of other resources.  One commodity that I found depleted much more rapidly than I predicted was cash!  It turns out that I had underestimated my monetary expenditures - specifically for insurance.  The big three were for auto, home and medical.

In the case of medical, it was in the period where Obamacare was being implemented.  The insurance bills were a useless but massive monthly bleed-out of money that gave me nothing but a checkup visit.  The sliding scale of medical plans only looked at past income, not present income.  So, the sliding scale fees worked against me.  To the graphs, I was still a fat wealthy moneybag ready to be harvested.  Each month brought a healthcare bill of several hundred dollars that ate up a significant chunk of my unemployment checks.  In addition, I had an over-priced prescription that I felt I should maintain - that is until I saw the price of it increase from $35 a month to $1000 a month(because my insurance plan no longer covered it), then $2000 a month (the price I would pay if I had no insurance at all). Needless to say, I was in no position to pay the last two prices.  Fortunately, my doctor found a substitute medication.  It didn't work as well, but it at least allowed me to go back to work.  Now that I'm back to work, it is my employer is paying the ruinous sums of money to the insurance cartel. It's not that my healthcare problem is solved, but it does give some time for me to think about how to respond to the healthcare extortion system when the day comes that I can no longer work.

The whole exercise taught me some lessons. First, I learned that change of this kind can sometimes bring some unexpected benefits. Due to walking, biking and lack of daily stress, I lost some weight and gained some stamina.  So, my overall health improved.  Second, I learned that preparing for one kind of emergency (oil crash) that didn't happen gave me many of the same resources that were needed during another crisis that did happen (Job loss).  Not only did I have enough resources to get through the storm, but I also had access to low cost transport to a new job.  This was due to my decision (driven by preparing for peak-oil) that made me decide to buy a house near a bus line.

How to financially survive a visit to an ER in the United States

I have a saying that has been proven to be true. "Catch someone at the wrong moment and they will appear to be an idiot."  Fortunately, this condition is rarely incurable.  It can be treated with training. That is, for specific situations, the proper response to given stimuli can be made to be almost automatic.  It's done for many situations from learning how to fight to learning how to perform first aid. Although its impossible to train for every situation there are several situations every American citizen should be prepared for.

When it comes to dealing with hospitals and ER (emergency room) treatment, disputing anything seems futile.  They seem to be massive organizations that have enough lawyers to crush most anyone.  Plus, a victim is close to the perfect customer.  The "customer"  usually doesn't know what is needed, has no idea what the costs are and may be in no condition to think rationally. 

But first, if you are in a condition to make a rational choice, some nasty expenses can be avoided before they happen. For example, if you find yourself facing a decision to take an ambulance ride to the ER (emergency room) or to an urgent care center keep these points in mind.

• Consider that ambulance transport is between $400 to $1200 a ride and is not usually covered by insurance.
• If you didn't call the ambulance, you don't need to take it! However, a "responsible person" such as a friend needs to accompany you away from the scene (and they will wait until this person shows up). 
• If you do ride in an ambulance and you are conscious, you can choose your hospital. Although, if you are not in the best state of mind, that might be quite difficult due to shock.  Then again, if you ARE able to make a rational choice, what are you doing in an ambulance?  Regardless, prepare to be fleeced.  There's not much you can do about it except try to leave the hospital as early as you can and have as few billable incidents as possible.  The hospital will help shove you out.  They have a saying, "ship them out sicker and quicker"
• For not so serious conditions an "urgent care" clinic might be a less expensive choice.  Just don't expect off-hour service or quick treatment.  Then again, I've noticed that ER rooms at hospitals are not that fast either.  What seems to be the main advantage of "Urgent care" places is that they are much more receptive to your concerns about exactly how much the treatment will cost. This is due to them frequently wanting up-front payment.

Ok, so you couldn't avoid a trip to the ER.  They stitched you up, put you in a cast, shoved you in a cab and you somehow crawled back in your home to recover.  At some point, you'll think about the the bills.   For normal debt it pays to retire debt as quick as possible to avoid interest and fees. However, hospital debt is rather strange. Ideally, a hospital would wrap all that hospital debt up for you.  Then you pay your percentage of whatever your healthcare plan covers, up to the out-of-pocket maximum.  However, that won't be what happens.

Instead of billing you immediately, the hospital may try to get an agreement with you as quick as possible (even though doing so may breech their contract with their insurance carriers). So, they will rarely contact you directly.  Instead, they may send you a big fat financial aid packet and/or use another organization call you to "ask questions" to see if you "qualify for help".  After a while, you'll  get a series of bills from labs, doctors, anesthesiologists and other specialists.  You'll also get duplicate bills, and invalid bills sometimes appearing MONTHS after treatment. Don't ever over pay anyone cause you'll NEVER get a refund.  So, unless you like needlessly tipping thousands of dollars to these people it's important that you don't pay anything early!  Instead, collect a pile of these bills.  Then, one by one, nicely go through them with your insurance company. I used to think a delay of a month was a long enough time.  However, after waiting a month, then paying all I thought I owed, I found I was getting billed again from the hospital!   Due to that, I recommend (and I'm not kidding about this) at least three months before paying bills. It's stressful, but I assure you it's less stressful than not having any money (or bargaining power) later! 
 
Here are some other tips:

• Did I mention you should not pay anything as long as possible until YOU have the information required to get the maximum amount covered from your insurance company?  You can contact the people billing you to inform them of the delay.   To people billing you, make it clear that the delay isn't your fault but that your insurance company needs to review ALL claims, not just theirs.
• Once you decide to process bills, contact your insurance company and ask them about EVERY bill no matter how small. Even if it needs to be paid, but isn't covered by insurance, at least it may eat away at your deductible.  
• If anyone (but the hospital) says they will send you to a collection agency for non payment, inform them that the bill is being reviewed by your insurance company.  (make sure the insurance company really is reviewing it - ideally, giving you a correspondence number)  If they persist bothering you or threaten you with fees, remind them that charging additional interest or fees by itself may violate your insurance company's agreement with the hospital.  If they persist, offer to report them  to your states insurance fraud hotline.
• Keep in mind, what is casually said over the phone usually applies to you, but unfortunately not to them. So, don't talk to anyone if you can help it. Instead, do it in writing if at all possible.
• At some point, you'll then reach your "out of pocket maximum".  That is, the insurance company will pay 100% of what they cover.  However, you'll probably be responsible for a whole bunch of other stuff not covered - and that might make you go broke.  But hey, suck it up buttercup!  That's what you get for not doing enough to promote no-fault socialized medicine!
  

Hopefully, we'll soon get decent healthcare so you'll never need to go through all this.  However, if that doesn't happen, I hope these tips help.

Healthy lifestyles - according to my insurance company

Well, it's finally happened.  Just like the movie Sleeper, everything that was bad for you is apparently healthy and everything that was healthy is now bad.  At least, according to my insurance company.

Ok, so how does that work?  A long time ago, cigarettes were shown to cause cancer and fried food caused heart attacks.  Fortunately, most of the smoke I inhaled in college was from second hand smoke and I developed an aversion to fried food in college.  Then, I entered the working world.  I soon get sleep problems due to, well, showing up to work.  In order to stay alert, I start to drink coffee and caffeine loaded soda.  Also, with a horrible commute, there is no time for proper meals. So, my diet became horrendous. This makes my weight go up.  As my weight goes up, it causes night time breathing problems among other things.  Less sleep, more soda, coffee and salty snacks to keep me awake. Eventually, I have trouble breathing at night due to Apnea that I start falling asleep during the day.  You get the picture. 

So, I go to the doctor.  He prescribes a sleep machine and some medication.  I'm finally able to stay awake during the day and get sleep at night!  I feel better and stay in the working world. After 5 years of this routine, I move from one employer to another as the new career norm now demands.  During this time, I try to do my part. I lose some weight which allows me to only use the sleep machine as needed rather than as a full time dependency and taper down my medication. After several employers and several insurance company changes later, I find myself back with the original insurer who approved my original medication. My physical health didn't decline - but thanks to changing employers, my financial health did change.  What used to be a $15 prescription became $30,$75,$15,$0,$350 then $3000 - what? After going back to Blue Cross, they decide they now won't cover what they covered before.

I naturally ask why.  It turns out the medication and my sleep machine are now rather expensive items due to pharma inflation. So, the insurance company wants to look for an excuse to now deny me my continued use of both.  So, they had me report my sleep logs.   They finally say, "nope, sorry, you don't have enough usage hours on your sleep machine. So, we're not going to pay for a repair or replacement."  They were also very careful to say they weren't denying treatment.  Just payment.  No matter, the effect is the same.  Without replacements, I start gaining weight again which makes the condition worse.  Looking back, I could probably have fought it based on denying me based on a pre-existing condition.  However, now I've unfortunately demonstrated I'm not dead without these items.

Anyway, after years of not smoking, I'm considering doing it again to lose the weight (or at least arrest the gain).  It's a risk assessment.  An occasional cigarette saved my life during a critical period (say, driving in winter in the middle of nowhere when I HAD TO stay awake to find shelter).  In the same way, smoking in leu of excessive weight gain may have the same effect on me.  That is, weight loss (or at least slower weight gain) to get rid of the Apnea might be a greater benefit than the health lost to smoking. So, I'm well on my way to living the Woody Allen future as seen in the Sleeper movie. He noticed that not one person he knew eating a high fiber diet lived past 200. So, bring on the menthol butts and Mountain Dew! Thanks private insurance!

In all seriousness, what this shows to me is that in spite of Obamacare insurance reform, the a-la-carte way insurance companies can deny some medications and treatments to some people is a loophole the insurance/provider/pharma industries can fly a medivac helicopter through. Pharma can still sell it's overpriced medications to end users (some who will still pay those high prices, at least for a limited time). Hospitals can then offer treatment not approved by insurance at substantial markup (patients will either pay those extra charges or go bankrupt and generate writeoffs for the hospital). Doctors still get kickbacks from pharma companies by prescribing expensive non-covered medications that patients will still buy - at least for a limited time till they run out of money.  It's all very corrupt.  The very rich own medical stock, which is doing quite well.  The very poor (or those working in the growing underground economy) now benefit since they get basic medical treatment but have no income that qualifies for debt retirement garnishment.  Who pays for it?  A shrinking middle class (gradually turning into the working poor) that pay through inflated pre-tax insurance premiums and artificially inflated medical supply prices.

One wonders how long this can go on. Probably longer than I can.  Welcome to the future...

Pay off a mortgage or "invest" in the stock market

So, maybe you are living a little above the average "paycheck to paycheck" slobs.  You have a little extra money saved up, doing nothing In a savings account.  What should you invest in?  Should you pay off your home mortgage early or use that money to pad your retirement nest egg?  After reviewing several articles pro and con, I was not sure which way to go either. 

After reading articles, mostly pro-stock market investing, I opened a letter that absolutely decided the issue for me.  It was the check that I got which allowed me to “cash out” of one of my former employers 401K plans to my new employer’s 401K plan.  I compared the check amount I had to the statements I got in the months before.  Then compared it to the final “F##k Y#u" statement - that is the statement that says how much my fund would have been worth had I not cashed out.  During this long market rally, my fund value started at the year at 12k.  Then climbed to a little over 13K during March.  Then it would have apparently ended at just under 15K - that is, if I hadn’t cashed out a week earlier.  Yet, somehow between the statement printings that said 13K and 15K, the value at cash-out dropped to 10K? Coincidence?  Did a one-day massive stock drop then an even greater rally happen that week that nobody bothered to report on?  Of course not. The 10K what the mutual fund company deemed my paper was worth at that time. Since they were essentially the only buyer, well, they can really can set most any price they want.  In my case,  a technicality that allowed them to keep 1/3 of the stated value was a little condition buried in the fine print called "Forfeiture".

So, beware. There may be little mines in the fine print that allow these companies to legally not pay you anywhere near what you think you might get.  Also, keep in mind that mutual funds are subject to the same supply-demand that other investments are subject to.  That is, that gains or losses are only real the day of the sale.  The rest of the time, it’s statement bullshit to keep people in the market (see the blue dots that represent apparent values as per the quarterly statements).  I've named this phenomena “the sell-out curve”.  It’s not a real curve.  Rather, it’s the feeling one gets which seems like how the market must have performed the day of sell out when you get quite a bit less in a settlement check than the statements suggest you would get.  

Oh, and when it comes to retirement, there's another future whammy too.  Keep in mind 401K investments are pre-tax dollars.  So, when I finally decide to turn this next investment back into currency to spend, I still need to pay income tax on it too! 

So, what's a smarter investment? Getting rid of debt.  That includes home mortgage debt. I'll even go out on a limb and say "especially home debt". Do the compound interest calculation. A small interest rate over a long time is still a LOT of money. In fact, for many people, they pay twice the amount of dollars they pay for their home.  Yes, yes, inflation trends can create cheaper dollars. However, the trend for doubling one's wages is not encouraging.   Also, unlike an investment firm, most individuals cannot just decide to payback a bank less than the full stated amount owed.

Got food? Modern day droughts.

Lots of attention has been directed to California's food producing problems - with good reason since the entire state is under a drought.  However, modern day water problems are not just in California.  Google "Kansas Dust Storm" and you'll see shocking footage of a modern day dust-bowl type storm that happened this spring 4-28-2014.  These weather events combined with the pending loss in reserve currency status (that would make food imports very expensive) may soon not only affect U.S. food prices but overall food availability.

Those that forget their history are doomed to repeat it.

Most people would think this photo came from somewhere in Kansas during the Dustbowl period in  the 1930's.  They would be wrong.  A combination of drought and misuse of marginal farmland led to Dust Bowl-like conditions in New York beginning in the 1920s.

Before the middle of the 19th century, forests had been primarily viewed as inexhaustible and an obstacle to civilization; they were something to be cleared out of the way for agriculture, or to be cut and exploited for profit. By the 1880s, less than 25% of New York State was forested, and the remaining uncut forests in the Catskills and Adirondacks were being logged fast. In 1885, New York created the Forest Preserve Act to protect state owned lands in the Catskills and Adirondacks from further exploitation. This act was strengthened in 1894 by an amendment to the New York State Constitution:

"The lands of the state, now owned or hereafter acquired, constituting the forest preserve as now fixed by law, shall be forever kept as wild forest lands. They shall not be leased, sold or exchanged, or be taken by any corporation, public or private, nor shall the timber thereon be sold, removed or destroyed."

Given that cultivated farmland will be reduced either through sensible legislation (such as in New York) or through natural forces (such as in Kansas) what is one to do?  One answer could be to encourage households to start kitchen gardens. A small plot of land, properly managed, has the potential to grow quite a bit of food.  Amateur gardeners can start with commercial seeds, soil and fertilizer for minimal investment.  Once the basics are mastered, permaculture techniques can then be gradually adopted.

Since back yards aren't available for everyone, other sources of food might be produced from basement or closet based hydroponic type systems.  One body of technology that may offer some promising solutions is the illegal pot growing industry.  Many "kits" needed to grow marijuana plans indoors can be easily adopted to growing other crops such as tomatoes.  Ironically, the patent laws might soon make growing any plant from seed be something that is just as much a criminal offense as growing pot from seed now is.  Given the potential for profitable shakedowns for those who dare save seeds, the ability to grow plants covertly may eventually be of some benefit.

Selective enforcement

For years in the U.S. there has always been the problem of selective enforcement when it comes to laws.  There are numerous times where one person is made into an "example" by being assigned a penalty while others get none. My favorite example is issuing speeding tickets. Speeders could easily have on-the-spot convictions at toll booths with time stamped tickets but they never are due to that pesky right to a fair trial requirement. In my opinion, it shouldn't prevent at least an appearance ticket from being issued if early payment of a toll shows speeding. However, I digress.

The fact is, the individual has more laws than can be applied to them than can be read in a human lifetime.  Does the fact a person can unknowingly break several  laws a day lead to frequent incarceration?  In most cases, no.  Instead, it leads to unelected governance and government bloat such as this team of agents who used taxpayer dollars to do a multi-agent arrest of a girl for buying water.  Why? The rulers become the ones who know the rules and can pick and choose which ones to point out when it's convenient to do so.  Such people include IRS auditors, coding inspectors, police officers and anyone else who has any government regulatory power at all.  Those who flash badges can even make up laws to entrap people such as officers in Ohio who set up a fake drug checkpoint.  Also, check out how our own FBI is "inventing terrorists"  It makes one wonder why we have laws at all. 

One relatively new use of selective enforcement is now being done to increase profits in the medical industry.  Did you know stockpiling your own medication is now illegal? Yes, stockpiling more than the prescribed dose of critical medication, you may need to live, is illegal. So, if you pill split due to anticipating a shortage due to financial hardship, too bad! Its more than you need since you obviously can get by with the lower dosage.  So, it could be the slammer for you!

Oh, but it gets better.  Suppose you check the price of your prescription with your pharmacist.  In some cases, the price charged is much higher than if you had no insurance at all!    However, going to another pharmacy and state you have a prescription and want to pay cash since you have no insurance.  Doing that is ...you guessed it...illegal.  Sorry, you were stupid enough to sign up for a medical plan through your employer that you cannot opt out of unless you are fired.  So, if you can't afford the higher price and you won't quit your job to get the lower price...no medicine for you!

When it comes to prescription drug laws, they now exist to extract maximum profit from patients.   Due to selective enforcement, these laws are making poorer people needlessly miserable.  Since rich people can still get drugs (and poor people know it) there is also collective non-respect for ALL laws gradually developing. Furthermore, a very lucrative price support system is now in place that is encouraging organized crime to enter the medical field.

For example, one area that is experiencing explosive growth is in heroin distribution in leu of prescription pain killers.  The pattern is very simple to see. a person gets hurt.  Person is prescribed very powerful prescription pain killers.  Medication is then abruptly stopped either due to further prescriptions not being issued or more often insurance refusing to pay for drugs being sold at inflated prices.  Person is then addicted and/or is still in excruciating pain.  Result?  Person is willing to do almost anything to get release from the pain.  At first, they pay the inflated drug prices.  Once they are out of money (and it doesn't take long since self-pay prices may be in the thousands per dose), they then turn to illegal but affordable alternatives such as heroin. Pain is enough of a motivator to them that they not only overcome their fear of dealing with very scary people but also overcoming a very powerful natural aversion to needles to self-inject heroin into their bodies.   

The solution to any corrupted system isn't easy.  It's just this:  Replace our elected incumbents with people who are willing to repeal laws that may only exist to perpetuate the profits of a few at the expense of many.  The alternative will be to enter into a world where the official economy becomes crippled by provisional governance while an alternate system immune from regulation or taxation (and usually prone to violence) will start to thrive.

This memorial day, here's to those in the silent service.

No, I'm not referring to those in the NAVY who served in submarine service or even the field agent spooks who worked for the FBI. Rather, I'm talking about the millions of non-government employees who go to work every day to generate the wealth to make a military possible. They are the factory workers, hotel cleaners, food service workers, retail people, nursing home workers, tomato pickers, forklift drivers and countless others who provide support services but have not directly served in one of the armed forces.

These civilians forgo a lifetime of benefits and status of government service to provide the true wealth that allows the rest of our government to function. They are the ones who do without civil or military pensions.  They get no extra points on civil service tests or special tax breaks.  They get no veteran discounts and would be quickly dragged out of a VA hospital if they were sick in spite of possibly having been employed at one.

So, here's to all the tax payers in private industry who actually work for a living. It's OK to appreciate the servicemen but don't forget everyone else who made their job possible.

The peacemaker of our time.

I was listening to the radio about how crime has mysteriously decreased in some cities.  Of course, some agencies are quick to take credit for this.  From Homeland Security and New York City police to the Prison Industrial Complex, all are quick to take credit for a reduction in crime.  However, I suspect something else is at work that has little to do with the boondoggle efforts of bloated police forces or even the number of guns in the hands of civilians.

Years ago, I was reading a Tom Clancy novel, Red Storm Rising.  It was a  novel about the Russians doing a bolt from the blue attack and being thwarted.   One statement that made the story more interesting was about how it was done.  A particular sergeant who somehow survived a surprise assault by the Russians was overrun and became trapped behind enemy lines.  He fortunately had, in the words of Tom Clancy, "one of the most powerful weapons in the U.S. military".  No, it wasn't a backpack nuke.  It was simply a radio.  He then proceeded to call in air strikes, artillery and other nasty countermeasures that ultimately stopped the assault.

In a similar way, most people (even children) now have that capability.  It exists in the form of a cellular telephone.  These little devices have an emergency number 911.  Thanks to that number, any incident can now be quickly reported.  When an incident is reported, resources start going to the site of the call. Even if the perpetrators left the scene, it's likely somebody may have recorded the event on a phone camera. Depending on what was reported or recorded, firemen, police, ambulances, helicopters, national guard units and even regular army could be called in until the threat is addressed. What is the difference today versus 20 years ago?  Is it bigger, better faster fire trucks? Is it due to some super breed of airport security guard? No, it's simply more information from any given incident.

With the emergence of phone cameras and GPS, the environment in the United States isn't very private. We already live in a virtual police state where movements are tracked.  It's a world where speeding tickets are issued by machines and mailed to the car owner.  It's a society where photos can be taken out of context for wrongful convictions (For example, speeding tickets for people who own the car versus drive the car).  It's also becoming a world where neighbors are encouraged by society to inform on other neighbors and where children inform on their parents.  In trade, we have a world where petty crime is less common but where minor incidents often are punished to the full extent of the law. It's also a world where Google can give the appearance of significantly boosting  IQ but lack of that data crutch can be crippling. It's the old choice of freedom from versus freedom to.

Some say this world of complexity will someday fail suddenly.  I disagree.  I expect that some version of mobile-data will be maintained in all but the worst energy depletion scenarios.  I base this on the fact that various 3rd world areas with sketchy economies still manage to provide surprising levels of cellular service over relatively barren areas.  Given that, is almost ubiquitous connectivity worth the trade of living in a surveillance state? That choice for now is still up to the individual.  Leaving the mobile phone at home or pulling out the battery (or just not charging it) is still an option. \

The trial never ends

I decided to try to take a break from thinking of Peak Oil and resource depletion issues. So, I decided to watch an old episode of Star Trek. In the episode I was watching, a member of a race of ultimately powerful beings, the "Q", decided to test the main character of the program to see if he was worthy of continued existence. At the end of the trial, in the episode "All Good Things", the main character "Capt. Picard" found he managed to not only save his ship and crew but all of humanity as well. At the end, the dialog shows us some life lessons that i suspect apply to us all.

Picard: "I sincerely hope this is the last time I find myself here". (Talking to "Q" at the trial site, after successfully passing his latest challenge)

Q: "You just don't get it do you. Weren't you listening? The trial never ends! We wanted to see if you had the ability to expand your mind and your horizons...For one fraction of a second, you were open to options you had never considered. That's the exploration that awaits you. Not charting stars and studying nebulae but charting the unknown possibilities of existence..."

It really put my daily (and future) challenges due to Peak Oil into perspective. The trials(s) never really do end do they? Even if such tests aren't administered by an ultimately powerful being, we each encounter hundreds of choices each day. From crossing a street to choosing a good breakfast, they have eventual consequences through time that may ultimately ensure our continued existence or our destruction. This happens on the dullest of days or during days full of obvious survival challenges. So, each day is important. Not just for the choices it brings but for being a step towards occasionally being put in a position to make important choices about our existence.