Apocalypse when?

Many people agree that no empire is forever. After all, in a few billion years the sun will eat the earth. Sometime before then, the United States will end. But how?

The effect of world resource depletion on the United States could be compared to a decaying automobile. Without repair, such a thing WILL stop working and usually does suddenly. The term "stops working" could be due to rust finally allowing the uni-body construction to crack in half such as Dimitri Orlov suggests in one of his essays It could also stop working due to lack of a critical part the system needs. That is, the principle of "peak everything", described by Richard Heinburg which covers the lack of availability of parts from ignition computers to gasoline. Using common sense, we know collapse of the United States is inevitable but cannot be precisely predicted.

Here's why. If someone were to look at say the death of a suburban shopping mall this fault is easier to see. When does an old shopping mall collapse? Is it when the mall's owners conclude occupancy is at a level that no longer covers operating costs? Is it when the mall finally closes it's last store? Is it the date when some square footage of roof section falls due to snow load? How about when the remains are finally leveled by a bulldozer to build a new golf course? Depending on how collapse is defined, a "collapse" doesn't happen at a specific time at all! Rather, it's a process consisting of events that can be spread over decades.

So, one might ask,"Will the U.S. achieve somebody's definition of collapse soon?" Absolutely. It's already happened. Just ask somebody who's unemployment has run out. Yet using different metrics, others may say the U.S. is OK or can at least muddle around for another hundred years even if the peak-oil and climate change doomers are correct. Maybe their definition is like mine. As long as the IRS is around, the U.S. still exists.

In my opinion, defining collapse metrics makes the analysis good only for identifying stages. Once the stages are identified, history can then be compared for similar scenarios. However, even if a relatively good historical match can be found little more can be done than setting general strategic direction. Still, analyzing collapse stages might be helpful when deciding on places to live, occupations to pursue and what capital should be built up first (both human and material).

As an example, one action I did in response to Peak Oil and Climate Change was to imagine stages of resource depletion using Dimitri's stages of collapse model. Then I biased that analysis on what I knew of my region's geography and it's history. So, I decided one effective tactic would be to buy a small house with a fixed rate mortgage in a walkable community with enough land for a decent size kitchen garden.  So far, so good.  Even though I'm currently unemployed and prices for all kinds of things are going up, I'm in no immediate danger of starving or being thrown out of my house.